In 2009 China's electronic information industry facing opportunities and challenges

     The international economic situation

     The 1 industry development and uncertain factors are increasing.

     The current international economic situation complicated and grim, the slowdown in global economic growth, the United States sub-loan crisis on the impact of the international economy and financial markets remain, and the influence is likely to continue to increase. The International Monetary Fund forecasts that in 2009 the world economic growth is slowing down further, the next two years, global economic growth below 3%, major developed economies recession probability is 25%. Emerging and developing economies weakening, the growth rate of 7.7%, than in 2007 fell 2.3 percentage points, of which India fell 2.4 percentage points. A number of international consulting agency analysis that, in 2009, the global PC ( personal computer) shipments increase will be cut from 10% to 4%; the global mobile phone market growth rate from 6% down to 3%, shipments of less than 2008 5%. This will be on China's exports of electronic products have a certain impact.

      2  trade friction and protection will become acute.

     According to the world trade organization, the first half of 2008 the new global anti-dumping investigation of 85, grow 39% compared to the same period, the new anti-dumping measures taken by 54, an increase of 6%. The first 8 months of this year, overseas to our country initiate countervailing investigations since 23, China has become the global countervailing and anti-dumping and other trade remedy investigations than any other country. In addition, the European Union has officially released from January 1, 2009, increase the import tariff of flat panel display. Is expected next year, Europe and the United States trade protection became more popular, on China's RMB exchange rate, export policy will exert more pressure.

     3 of the global market of electronic information product still has certain space.

    Technology upgrade brought the replacement of upsurge, and emerging market increase informatization to build investment, will become the industry to promote the growth of an important force. In addition, governments actively "rescue", taken a number of effective measures to curb global economy continued to decline and economic development next year, produced certain positive effect.

     According to IDC international authority the orgnaization is forecasted, 2009 notebook computers, LCD TV, digital cameras, software services such as growth rate reached two digit. Notebook shipments are expected growth rate is expected to reach 16%, LCD TV shipments over the traditional CRT TV, growth maintains in two digit above, digital camera grew to more than 10%. In addition, as Europe and the United States and India's economic downturn, some multinational companies outsourcing service has turned to China, for China's software industry to expand service outsourcing market opportunities. Thus, in 2009 China's electronics manufacturing industry export growth will firm in hasten delay, software outsourcing exports are showing better growth will be higher than in 2008 5 to 10 percentage points, but embedded software export as the machine products export slowdown and amplitude glides.

     The domestic economic situation

     One, development opportunity

     Look from governmental level, the Chinese government to the international economic environment against adverse effect to our country, to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately easy monetary policy, introduced even more effective measures to expand domestic demand, for the industry development created good opportunity, as shown in the following two aspects :

    A recent State Council issued 10 measures to promote economic growth, investment in 2009 4 trillion yuan to expand domestic demand, the central bank issued 8 measures to implement the moderately loose monetary policy, for enterprises to create loose financing environment. At the same time, our country this year is 3 times to raise the export tax rebate rate adjustment 3770 products export tax refund rate, most of which are mechanical and electrical products and the part of the labor-intensive products, export enterprises to alleviate the tense capital chain and reduce pressure on export enterprises, has played a positive role.

    Two levels of government, each ministries and commissions for the response of the central stimulating domestic demand of the spirit, and actively introduce relevant specific measures, increase investment strength. Recently, the Ministry of water resources to add 20000000000 Yuan to accelerate construction of irrigation works infrastructure ; railway ministry in 2009 plans to invest 600000000000 yuan to carry out railroad infrastructure, to 2010 will add railway mileage of 10000 km, the scale of investment of 1 yuan ; the Civil Aviation Administration of China next year plans to invest 200000000000 yuan to carry out the new airport project. These areas of intelligent building system, China's software industry and the promotion of information technology applications, to bring new development opportunity.

      From the enterprise level, promote enterprise capital merger and integration in the opportunities, as shown in the following two aspects :

     One is the international financial crisis for the electronic strong large and medium-sized enterprises to shake the forces are weak, for software business impact is very small, talent, capital and market further to large enterprises. 1-10 month of our country large and medium-sized e-business growth rate 15%, the profit rate of 22%, higher than the industry were 1 percentage points and 2.1 percentage points. Small and medium-sized enterprises are affected by the impact of large, the loss is bigger. The big acquisitions, integration of good asset, expand actual strength, enhance competition ability, will bring good opportunity.

     The two is due to the global economic slowdown, some multinational companies to accelerate the layout of Chinese market, R & D centers and industrial transfer trend is clear, the domestic competition is faced with new adjustment. At present, the upstream industry in general downturn, the economic efficiency of enterprises fell, China Taiwan part of flat panel display business is very difficult, these are for mainland enterprises through mergers and acquisitions to cooperate to solve the bottleneck of industrial development, provides a significant opportunity.

     Therefore, on 2009, China's electronic information industry development will face a new shuffle.

     From the strategic perspective, the integration of information technology and industrialization, for the industry to optimize upgrade provided favorable environment, as shown in the following two aspects :

     One is the CPC put forward to promote the integration of information technology and industrialization, accelerate advance electronic information industry to transform traditional industry pace. The Ministry of industry and information technology was established, and vigorously promote the integration of information technology and industrialization development, actively promote the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure, to seize the key domain and crucial link, accelerate the transformation of industrial economic development. Therefore, the field of science and technology development and the level of application of information technology will further improve, as the electronic product application and development of industrial software market, creating new vast space.

      Two is the integrated circuit design and the software industry in the national policy support, will still maintain rapid development, especially in embedded system software and good prospect. With the development of the integrated circuit design and manufacturing technology, system on chip ( SoC) technology has further enables the performance of embedded system and power consumption is optimized, so that the intelligent control ability significantly, applications in mobile Internet will quickly away. The number of international famous company expects Internet after" mainframe "," server and PC machine"," mobile phone and mobile internet terminal " as the carrier of the 3 stage of development, is gradually moving towards to the embedded device as the carrier phase. By 2011, China embedded equipment market to be worth more than $10000000000, for the development of China's software industry will bring good opportunity.

     From a market perspective, the international financial crisis makes China's electronic information industry to develop the international market increased difficulty, but on the domestic market development, is still the opportunity and challenge coexist, as shown in the following three aspects :

     One is the basis of product price fall, for corporate earnings to create space for development. The recent international environmental impact, steel, chemicals, coal, oil price drops substantially, although the growth of economy of our country countryman brought certain negative effect, but look from another respect, for China's manufacturing enterprises to reduce production cost and improve profit space, creating good conditions.

      Two is the spending power of residents will gradually improve. In 2009, the domestic market in the Chinese government to expand domestic demand and improve the urban and rural residents, especially the income level of low income group of stimulation, the market will rapidly warmed up, the spending power of residents will be expected to ascend, electronic consumer products market warming will quickly appear. At the same time, the third generation mobile communication system, mobile communications equipment and terminal market prospects. Especially 3G technology, mobile phone business intelligence, new value-added business and national economy improve, the domestic mobile phone subscriber growth. The electronic manufacturing industry, software industry's rapid development, has played a positive role in promoting.

      Three is the enterprise competition will be more intense. Enterprises to keep original market share and open up new markets, will continue to depreciate as product promotion of choice. At the same time, because of the international market, foreign enterprises will further increase on China's market expansion efforts, further squeezing Chinese enterprises, domestic enterprises will be more difficult. In addition, some emerging market arisen, will further attract foreign capital enterprises, potential market competition will gradually develop. As for the mobile Internet embedded system software industry, some international chip industry giants are optimistic, positive attention to this area.

      Two, challenge

       Capital attraction is to continue to increase. The international financial market turmoil and the global economic slowdown, resulted in many countries in financial markets have a liquidity crisis, big company downsizing plan, reduce the M & A activities of global foreign direct investment flow slowed down. The China World Trade Center will be the "World Investment Report 2008" show, 2008 global flows of foreign direct investment is less than the year 2007 10%, transnational merger and acquisition transactions is the second half of last year fell 29%. Many foreign financial institutions, multinational corporations began to withdraw the money back home to "rescue the market." In addition, nearly two years of domestic macroscopical environment hasten, foreign business investment transfer is obvious, and back to China to invest the lower likelihood of each district capital attraction will increase the difficulty, entire industry foreign investment growth will continue to slow.

      Industry of deep-seated contradictions still restrict the optimization of the structure of rapid development. Contradiction is mainly manifested in the following three aspects: one is the enterprise low level processing industrial chain and the depth development, two is the enterprise core technology development, control and optimization and upgrading of product structure is contradictory, three industrial homogeneity and the integration of industry chain of contradiction. These contradictions still exist, and to a certain extent restricts the rapid development of industrial structure optimization.

     The development is expected in 2009

      Predict 2009, entire industry development will continue to maintain a stable posture, growth in 16%-18%, with keep balance basically 2008. Predict 2009, entire industry scale will reach 7.2 yuan, of which, the software industry scale will reach 900000000000 yuan, grow 20%, profit tax grows 10%-15%; color TV production scale will grow 15%; computer size will increase 18%; communication equipment size will increase 8%; communication terminal size will increase 10%; electronic components size will grow 19%.